{
  "issue": 9,
  "status": "experimental_pending",
  "reference_date": "2026-10-20",
  "freeze_date": "2026-10-21",
  "publication_date": "2026-10-21",
  "measure": "Prior-12-month application incidence, not approvals",
  "reference_window": "(2025-10-20,2026-10-20]; proxy; official field dates not reconstructed",
  "predictions": [
    {
      "id": "auto",
      "role": "primary",
      "forecast_pct": 12.098398810496816,
      "display_pct": "12.10%",
      "official_pct": null,
      "absolute_error_pp": null,
      "grade": "pending",
      "june_2026_persistence_pct": 12.031081199645996,
      "october_2025_seasonal_pct": 12.8423490524292,
      "presentation_min_pct": 5.513029,
      "presentation_max_pct": 23.997821,
      "presentation_range_pp": 18.484792
    },
    {
      "id": "card",
      "role": "secondary",
      "forecast_pct": 22.862438672749974,
      "display_pct": "22.86%",
      "official_pct": null,
      "absolute_error_pp": null,
      "grade": "pending",
      "june_2026_persistence_pct": 29.892290115356445,
      "october_2025_seasonal_pct": 26.639808654785156,
      "presentation_min_pct": 16.238928,
      "presentation_max_pct": 35.669538,
      "presentation_range_pp": 19.43061
    }
  ],
  "population": {
    "frame": "2024 ACS one-year PUMS household reference persons 18+, 50 states and DC; owner/buyer/renter proxy for household heads",
    "profiles": 1969,
    "rent_free_excluded_before_outcomes": 31,
    "limitations": "Not all adults, not applicant-restricted, not the official survey panel"
  },
  "responses": {
    "items": 2,
    "presentation_forms": 4,
    "assigned": 15752,
    "attempted": 15752,
    "valid": 15752,
    "invalid": 0,
    "missing": 0,
    "repairs": 0,
    "retries": 0
  },
  "estimator": "Arithmetic mean of all four weighted replicate Yes shares; demographic weights only; no outcome calibration",
  "scoring": {
    "amendment_date": "2026-10-21",
    "rule": "Each outcome passes iff abs(forecast_pct - first_official_october_2026_pct) <= 5 percentage points; otherwise misses",
    "full_precision": true,
    "inclusive": true,
    "separately_scored_predictions": 2,
    "issues": 1,
    "both_predictions_count_regardless_of_outcome": true,
    "no_selection_or_primary_replacement": true,
    "baselines": "Report both separately against same first official outcome; not pass/fail gates",
    "instrument_mismatch": "unresolved, not success",
    "vintage": "First official October 2026 values; retain file bytes, retrieval time and values; preserve revisions separately",
    "release_scheduled": "2026-11-16",
    "exact_hour": "unverified",
    "two_item_mae": "(auto absolute error + card absolute error) / 2 in percentage points; never overrides individual grade",
    "overall_mae": "Include both comparable predictions, one observation per item, state denominator and units",
    "existing_report_mape": "Different relative-error measure; neither unresolved prediction enters completed totals or its denominator today",
    "front_page_tally": "Issue counts: one pending issue, containing two pending predictions"
  },
  "amendment": {
    "date": "2026-10-21",
    "timing": "Owner reviewed frozen estimates, then approved before public release or official outcome",
    "approved_change": "<=5 percentage points per item, two separately scored predictions, both count; publication authorized; numbers and response denominator unchanged",
    "earlier_private_proposal": "Required strictly lower error than both baselines; not publicly preregistered or owner-approved; original private protocol preserved"
  },
  "limitations": {
    "sensitivity": "Ranges are diagnostics, not confidence intervals or human margins of error",
    "original_mechanical_gates": "Passed parity, 16/16 fixtures and 64/64 legal-format responses; candidate complete",
    "hold": "Sensitivity hold was later editorial recommendation; no original numerical stability cutoff",
    "separate_historical_fitted_model": {
      "evaluation_waves": 5,
      "auto_mae_pp": 1.233,
      "auto_persistence_mae_pp": 1.195,
      "card_mae_pp": 5.382,
      "card_persistence_mae_pp": 1.832,
      "result": "Failed persistence; separate from current October outcomes"
    },
    "separate_later_fixture": "30/32, strict correctness failure; not original candidate gate",
    "validation": "Experimental, current outcomes pending, no established accuracy or endorsement claim"
  },
  "sources": {
    "credit_access": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access",
    "workbook": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-credit-access-data.xlsx",
    "questionnaire": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/2015-sce-credit-access-survey-questionaire.pdf",
    "calendar": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/research/interactives/data/cmdCalendar/cmdCalendar.csv",
    "calendar_verified_date": "2026-10-21"
  },
  "attribution_and_disclaimer": {
    "data": "Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, \u00a9 2013\u20132026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at www.newyorkfed.org and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility or legal liability for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data.",
    "study": "FRBNY did not participate in or endorse the Lewsearch October 2026 synthetic credit-application study.",
    "terms": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/privacy/termsofuse"
  }
}