{
  "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 — 2026 U.S. Senate Pre-Registration",
  "published": "2026-07-30",
  "pre_registration": {
    "frozen_at_local": "2026-07-29 18:08 EDT (Tier 1) / 18:42 EDT (Tier 2 amendment)",
    "git_commits": [
      {
        "hash": "b7c50f3",
        "at": "2026-07-29 18:08:35 -0400",
        "what": "Tier 1 questions frozen (GA Ossoff/Collins, OH Brown/Husted, TX Talarico/Paxton)"
      },
      {
        "hash": "ad9e2c0",
        "at": "2026-07-29 18:10:14 -0400",
        "what": "Panel amendment: statewide pools (georgia/ohio/texas) instead of metro pools; wording unchanged. Committed before full fielding (only a 12-agent GA pilot had run)."
      },
      {
        "hash": "979867c",
        "at": "2026-07-29 18:42:29 -0400",
        "what": "Tier 2 added and frozen before Tier 2 fielding (NC Cooper/Whatley, ME Collins/Jackson). MI excluded until its Aug 4 primary resolves."
      }
    ],
    "fielded_at_local": "Tier 1: 2026-07-29 18:11-18:14 EDT. Tier 2: 18:42-18:44 EDT.",
    "resolution": "Certified 2026 general/special election results, November 3, 2026"
  },
  "methodology": {
    "model": "Lewis",
    "scoring": "withheld",
    "inference": "withheld",
    "aggregation": "withheld",
    "option_order": "withheld",
    "dateline": "withheld",
    "system_prompt_mode": "withheld",
    "calibration": "withheld",
    "uncertainty": "95% bootstrap CI, 1000 respondent resamples, calibration re-applied per resample",
    "published_error_rate": "7.47% mean absolute error on 404 ex-electoral questions of a 460-question benchmark vs real polls (Pew, Gallup, UT/Texas Politics Project, PPIC); electoral questions use a separate calibration bucket",
    "disclosure": "Synthetic panel of AI respondents. No humans were interviewed. Tier 1 (GA/OH/TX): statewide live panels (ls_agents) with live statewide panels. Tier 2 (NC/ME): census-weighted agents generated from ACS REGIONAL frames (South/Northeast), relabeled to the state with a residency line; party mix reflects regional priors, not state party registration - directional only. MEASURED TIER 2 DEFECT, disclosed at publication: the regional frames over-represent high earners and under-represent independents. Per 1,000 agents, Tier 1 live panels place 162-172 in the $125k-or-more bracket (GA 172, OH 170, TX 162), consistent with the ~16-20% these states report; Tier 2 places 348 (NC) and 420 (ME), roughly double. Maine independents are 168 per 1,000 (16.8%) against roughly a third of actual ME registered voters, which is the most consequential gap in a Collins race. Income and party both predict vote choice, so NC and ME toplines are output from a known-misspecified instrument rather than forecasts; Tier 1 is unaffected. Tier 2 will be refielded on state frames for Issue 04 and both versions published against the same certified result. All questions are unbenchmarked and pre-registered. Known instrument effect: the panel allocates far less probability mass to 'Undecided' than human polls do; two-way vote share is the primary pre-registered metric. Michigan excluded until its Aug 4 primary resolves."
  },
  "markets": [
    {
      "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 — 2026 U.S. Senate",
      "market_id": "ga",
      "state": "Georgia",
      "tier": 1,
      "run_finished_at": "2026-07-29T22:11:06.581100+00:00",
      "panel": {
        "supabase_city": "georgia",
        "panel_label": "Georgia statewide live panel (ls_agents)",
        "panel_size": 20638,
        "sample_n": 1000,
        "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=42"
      },
      "methodology": {
        "model": "Lewis",
        "scoring": "withheld",
        "dateline": "withheld",
        "calibration": "withheld",
        "scaffold": "withheld"
      },
      "elapsed_seconds": 15.1,
      "response_rate": 1.0,
      "questions": [
        {
          "id": "ga_senate_matchup_2026",
          "benchmark_qid": null,
          "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jon Ossoff or Republican Mike Collins?",
          "options": [
            "Jon Ossoff",
            "Mike Collins",
            "Undecided"
          ],
          "question_type": "electoral",
          "mode": "policy",
          "dem_option_indices": [
            0
          ],
          "human_benchmark_gt": null,
          "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: Mike Collins won the GOP runoff Jun 16, 2026 (55.5% over Dooley); Buddy Carter was eliminated in the May 19 primary. Prior Emerson Ossoff/Carter benchmark question is a different matchup and no longer applies. Resolves against certified GA general-election result, Nov 3, 2026."
        }
      ],
      "results": {
        "ga_senate_matchup_2026": {
          "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jon Ossoff or Republican Mike Collins?",
          "options": [
            "Jon Ossoff",
            "Mike Collins",
            "Undecided"
          ],
          "benchmark_qid": null,
          "human_benchmark_gt": null,
          "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: Mike Collins won the GOP runoff Jun 16, 2026 (55.5% over Dooley); Buddy Carter was eliminated in the May 19 primary. Prior Emerson Ossoff/Carter benchmark question is a different matchup and no longer applies. Resolves against certified GA general-election result, Nov 3, 2026.",
          "n_answered": 1000,
          "weight_sums": [
            572.694521,
            405.76796,
            21.537561
          ],
          "raw_pct": {
            "Jon Ossoff": 57.3,
            "Mike Collins": 40.6,
            "Undecided": 2.2
          },
          "calibrated_pct": {
            "Jon Ossoff": 55.7,
            "Mike Collins": 44.2,
            "Undecided": 0.1
          },
          "dem_vote_share_raw_pct": 57.3,
          "dem_vote_share_calibrated_pct": 55.7,
          "calibration_meta": {
            "category": "electoral",
            "bucket_key": "electoral__3",
            "match": "exact",
            "expected_mae_pp": 10.203,
            "branch": "withheld_withheld"
          },
          "crosstabs": {
            "party": {
              "Democrat": {
                "n": 339,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 99.2,
                  "Mike Collins": 0.3,
                  "Undecided": 0.5
                }
              },
              "Independent": {
                "n": 181,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 83.6,
                  "Mike Collins": 10.3,
                  "Undecided": 6.1
                }
              },
              "Other/Apolitical": {
                "n": 76,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 79.3,
                  "Mike Collins": 12.1,
                  "Undecided": 8.6
                }
              },
              "Republican": {
                "n": 404,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 6.1,
                  "Mike Collins": 93.3,
                  "Undecided": 0.5
                }
              }
            },
            "age": {
              "18-34": {
                "n": 298,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 61.2,
                  "Mike Collins": 36.3,
                  "Undecided": 2.5
                }
              },
              "35-54": {
                "n": 266,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 52.5,
                  "Mike Collins": 45.2,
                  "Undecided": 2.2
                }
              },
              "55-64": {
                "n": 151,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 56.4,
                  "Mike Collins": 40.9,
                  "Undecided": 2.8
                }
              },
              "65+": {
                "n": 285,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 58.1,
                  "Mike Collins": 40.5,
                  "Undecided": 1.4
                }
              }
            },
            "income": {
              "$125k or more": {
                "n": 172,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 52.9,
                  "Mike Collins": 45.8,
                  "Undecided": 1.3
                }
              },
              "$35k-$74,999": {
                "n": 324,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 62.0,
                  "Mike Collins": 36.0,
                  "Undecided": 2.0
                }
              },
              "$75k-$124,999": {
                "n": 234,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 57.0,
                  "Mike Collins": 40.0,
                  "Undecided": 3.0
                }
              },
              "Under $35k": {
                "n": 270,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Jon Ossoff": 54.6,
                  "Mike Collins": 43.3,
                  "Undecided": 2.1
                }
              }
            }
          },
          "bootstrap": {
            "n_bootstrap": 1000,
            "dem_share_raw_ci95_pct": [
              54.4,
              60.0
            ],
            "dem_share_calibrated_ci95_pct": [
              53.3,
              58.1
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      "polling_context_at_publish": {
        "label": "Recent public polls (Ossoff vs Collins)",
        "detail": "Wick Jun 27-30: Ossoff +4 (47/43); Beacon/Shaw Jun 23-27: Ossoff +13 (56/43); Echelon Apr: Ossoff +7.",
        "dem_margin_pp": "+4 to +13"
      }
    },
    {
      "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 — 2026 U.S. Senate",
      "market_id": "oh",
      "state": "Ohio",
      "tier": 1,
      "run_finished_at": "2026-07-29T22:11:31.419908+00:00",
      "panel": {
        "supabase_city": "ohio",
        "panel_label": "Ohio statewide live panel (ls_agents)",
        "panel_size": 20638,
        "sample_n": 1000,
        "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=42"
      },
      "methodology": {
        "model": "Lewis",
        "scoring": "withheld",
        "dateline": "withheld",
        "calibration": "withheld",
        "scaffold": "withheld"
      },
      "elapsed_seconds": 16.6,
      "response_rate": 1.0,
      "questions": [
        {
          "id": "oh_senate_matchup_2026",
          "benchmark_qid": "marietta_times_brown_husted_senate_mar_2026",
          "question": "If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, whom would you support?",
          "options": [
            "Sherrod Brown (D)",
            "Jon Husted (R)",
            "Undecided"
          ],
          "question_type": "electoral",
          "mode": "policy",
          "dem_option_indices": [
            0
          ],
          "human_benchmark_gt": [
            0.47,
            0.45,
            0.08
          ],
          "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: this is the 2026 OH special election (Vance's former seat). Brown won the Dem primary with 89.4%; Husted is the appointed GOP incumbent. Matchup and benchmark wording are current. Reference poll: Mar 2026 (47/45/8); Jul 2026 polling averages ~Brown +1.3. Resolves against certified OH special-election result, Nov 3, 2026."
        }
      ],
      "results": {
        "oh_senate_matchup_2026": {
          "question": "If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, whom would you support?",
          "options": [
            "Sherrod Brown (D)",
            "Jon Husted (R)",
            "Undecided"
          ],
          "benchmark_qid": "marietta_times_brown_husted_senate_mar_2026",
          "human_benchmark_gt": [
            0.47,
            0.45,
            0.08
          ],
          "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: this is the 2026 OH special election (Vance's former seat). Brown won the Dem primary with 89.4%; Husted is the appointed GOP incumbent. Matchup and benchmark wording are current. Reference poll: Mar 2026 (47/45/8); Jul 2026 polling averages ~Brown +1.3. Resolves against certified OH special-election result, Nov 3, 2026.",
          "n_answered": 1000,
          "weight_sums": [
            603.065687,
            363.554758,
            33.379571
          ],
          "raw_pct": {
            "Sherrod Brown (D)": 60.3,
            "Jon Husted (R)": 36.4,
            "Undecided": 3.3
          },
          "calibrated_pct": {
            "Sherrod Brown (D)": 59.1,
            "Jon Husted (R)": 40.7,
            "Undecided": 0.1
          },
          "dem_vote_share_raw_pct": 60.3,
          "dem_vote_share_calibrated_pct": 59.1,
          "calibration_meta": {
            "category": "electoral",
            "bucket_key": "electoral__3",
            "match": "exact",
            "expected_mae_pp": 10.203,
            "branch": "withheld_withheld"
          },
          "crosstabs": {
            "party": {
              "Democrat": {
                "n": 326,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 99.1,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 0.2,
                  "Undecided": 0.7
                }
              },
              "Independent": {
                "n": 243,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 86.0,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 5.3,
                  "Undecided": 8.7
                }
              },
              "Other/Apolitical": {
                "n": 54,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 87.1,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 3.7,
                  "Undecided": 9.2
                }
              },
              "Republican": {
                "n": 377,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 6.4,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 92.3,
                  "Undecided": 1.4
                }
              }
            },
            "age": {
              "18-34": {
                "n": 276,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 60.1,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 35.2,
                  "Undecided": 4.6
                }
              },
              "35-54": {
                "n": 333,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 57.9,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 38.6,
                  "Undecided": 3.5
                }
              },
              "55-64": {
                "n": 153,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 66.9,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 30.4,
                  "Undecided": 2.7
                }
              },
              "65+": {
                "n": 238,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 59.6,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 38.4,
                  "Undecided": 2.0
                }
              }
            },
            "income": {
              "$125k or more": {
                "n": 170,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 60.7,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 36.3,
                  "Undecided": 3.0
                }
              },
              "$35k-$74,999": {
                "n": 360,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 64.4,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 32.2,
                  "Undecided": 3.4
                }
              },
              "$75k-$124,999": {
                "n": 226,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 58.4,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 38.3,
                  "Undecided": 3.3
                }
              },
              "Under $35k": {
                "n": 244,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Sherrod Brown (D)": 55.7,
                  "Jon Husted (R)": 40.8,
                  "Undecided": 3.5
                }
              }
            }
          },
          "bootstrap": {
            "n_bootstrap": 1000,
            "dem_share_raw_ci95_pct": [
              57.9,
              63.3
            ],
            "dem_share_calibrated_ci95_pct": [
              57.0,
              61.8
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      "polling_context_at_publish": {
        "label": "Polling averages (Brown vs Husted), early Jul 2026",
        "detail": "270toWin avg Jul 3: Brown 48.0 / Husted 46.7 (Brown +1.3); DDHQ Brown +1.5; Race to the WH Brown +0.8.",
        "dem_margin_pp": "+1.3"
      }
    },
    {
      "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 — 2026 U.S. Senate",
      "market_id": "tx",
      "state": "Texas",
      "tier": 1,
      "run_finished_at": "2026-07-29T22:11:52.673621+00:00",
      "panel": {
        "supabase_city": "texas",
        "panel_label": "Texas statewide live panel (ls_agents)",
        "panel_size": 20637,
        "sample_n": 1000,
        "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=42"
      },
      "methodology": {
        "model": "Lewis",
        "scoring": "withheld",
        "dateline": "withheld",
        "calibration": "withheld",
        "scaffold": "withheld"
      },
      "elapsed_seconds": 14.4,
      "response_rate": 1.0,
      "questions": [
        {
          "id": "tx_senate_matchup_2026",
          "benchmark_qid": null,
          "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat James Talarico or Republican Ken Paxton?",
          "options": [
            "James Talarico",
            "Ken Paxton",
            "Undecided"
          ],
          "question_type": "electoral",
          "mode": "policy",
          "dem_option_indices": [
            0
          ],
          "human_benchmark_gt": null,
          "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: scaffold's Dem-primary question was stale — Talarico won the primary Mar 3, 2026 (52.4%, no runoff) and Paxton defeated Cornyn in the GOP runoff May 26, 2026 (63.8%). Fielding the actual general-election matchup instead. Resolves against certified TX general-election result, Nov 3, 2026."
        }
      ],
      "results": {
        "tx_senate_matchup_2026": {
          "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat James Talarico or Republican Ken Paxton?",
          "options": [
            "James Talarico",
            "Ken Paxton",
            "Undecided"
          ],
          "benchmark_qid": null,
          "human_benchmark_gt": null,
          "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: scaffold's Dem-primary question was stale — Talarico won the primary Mar 3, 2026 (52.4%, no runoff) and Paxton defeated Cornyn in the GOP runoff May 26, 2026 (63.8%). Fielding the actual general-election matchup instead. Resolves against certified TX general-election result, Nov 3, 2026.",
          "n_answered": 1000,
          "weight_sums": [
            436.516087,
            547.768236,
            15.715689
          ],
          "raw_pct": {
            "James Talarico": 43.7,
            "Ken Paxton": 54.8,
            "Undecided": 1.6
          },
          "calibrated_pct": {
            "James Talarico": 44.6,
            "Ken Paxton": 55.3,
            "Undecided": 0.1
          },
          "dem_vote_share_raw_pct": 43.7,
          "dem_vote_share_calibrated_pct": 44.6,
          "calibration_meta": {
            "category": "electoral",
            "bucket_key": "electoral__3",
            "match": "exact",
            "expected_mae_pp": 10.203,
            "branch": "withheld_withheld"
          },
          "crosstabs": {
            "party": {
              "Democrat": {
                "n": 292,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 97.9,
                  "Ken Paxton": 1.4,
                  "Undecided": 0.8
                }
              },
              "Independent": {
                "n": 153,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 57.4,
                  "Ken Paxton": 37.6,
                  "Undecided": 4.9
                }
              },
              "Other/Apolitical": {
                "n": 77,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 56.3,
                  "Ken Paxton": 38.2,
                  "Undecided": 5.5
                }
              },
              "Republican": {
                "n": 478,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 4.1,
                  "Ken Paxton": 95.6,
                  "Undecided": 0.4
                }
              }
            },
            "age": {
              "18-34": {
                "n": 347,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 51.6,
                  "Ken Paxton": 46.2,
                  "Undecided": 2.2
                }
              },
              "35-54": {
                "n": 293,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 43.9,
                  "Ken Paxton": 54.7,
                  "Undecided": 1.4
                }
              },
              "55-64": {
                "n": 172,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 37.2,
                  "Ken Paxton": 61.7,
                  "Undecided": 1.1
                }
              },
              "65+": {
                "n": 188,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 34.4,
                  "Ken Paxton": 64.5,
                  "Undecided": 1.1
                }
              }
            },
            "income": {
              "$125k or more": {
                "n": 162,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 53.2,
                  "Ken Paxton": 45.5,
                  "Undecided": 1.3
                }
              },
              "$35k-$74,999": {
                "n": 374,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 40.9,
                  "Ken Paxton": 57.6,
                  "Undecided": 1.5
                }
              },
              "$75k-$124,999": {
                "n": 250,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 43.2,
                  "Ken Paxton": 55.4,
                  "Undecided": 1.4
                }
              },
              "Under $35k": {
                "n": 214,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "James Talarico": 41.8,
                  "Ken Paxton": 56.2,
                  "Undecided": 2.0
                }
              }
            }
          },
          "bootstrap": {
            "n_bootstrap": 1000,
            "dem_share_raw_ci95_pct": [
              40.7,
              46.2
            ],
            "dem_share_calibrated_ci95_pct": [
              42.3,
              46.6
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      "polling_context_at_publish": {
        "label": "Polling averages (Paxton vs Talarico), Jul 2026",
        "detail": "Aggregate of Apr-Jun polls: Talarico 45.4 / Paxton 45.0 (Talarico +0.4). NYT/Siena Jun: tied 47/47.",
        "dem_margin_pp": "+0.4"
      }
    },
    {
      "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 — 2026 U.S. Senate",
      "market_id": "nc",
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "tier": 2,
      "run_finished_at": "2026-07-29T22:43:00.989189+00:00",
      "panel": {
        "supabase_city": null,
        "agent_source": "census_generateAgent",
        "region_frame": "region_south",
        "panel_label": "Census-generated agents (ACS South region frame, state-relabeled)",
        "panel_size": 1000,
        "sample_n": 1000,
        "sampling": "census-weighted generation from ACS regional frame, seed=42"
      },
      "methodology": {
        "model": "Lewis",
        "scoring": "withheld",
        "dateline": "withheld",
        "calibration": "withheld",
        "scaffold": "withheld"
      },
      "elapsed_seconds": 21.3,
      "response_rate": 1.0,
      "questions": [
        {
          "id": "nc_senate_matchup_2026",
          "benchmark_qid": null,
          "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Roy Cooper or Republican Michael Whatley?",
          "options": [
            "Roy Cooper",
            "Michael Whatley",
            "Undecided"
          ],
          "question_type": "electoral",
          "mode": "policy",
          "dem_option_indices": [
            0
          ],
          "human_benchmark_gt": null,
          "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: open seat (Tillis retiring). Cooper won Dem primary (92%), Whatley won GOP primary (64.6%). Jul polling avg Cooper +8.4. Resolves against certified NC result Nov 3, 2026."
        }
      ],
      "results": {
        "nc_senate_matchup_2026": {
          "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Roy Cooper or Republican Michael Whatley?",
          "options": [
            "Roy Cooper",
            "Michael Whatley",
            "Undecided"
          ],
          "benchmark_qid": null,
          "human_benchmark_gt": null,
          "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: open seat (Tillis retiring). Cooper won Dem primary (92%), Whatley won GOP primary (64.6%). Jul polling avg Cooper +8.4. Resolves against certified NC result Nov 3, 2026.",
          "n_answered": 1000,
          "weight_sums": [
            522.685828,
            457.120719,
            20.1935
          ],
          "raw_pct": {
            "Roy Cooper": 52.3,
            "Michael Whatley": 45.7,
            "Undecided": 2.0
          },
          "calibrated_pct": {
            "Roy Cooper": 51.6,
            "Michael Whatley": 48.3,
            "Undecided": 0.1
          },
          "dem_vote_share_raw_pct": 52.3,
          "dem_vote_share_calibrated_pct": 51.6,
          "calibration_meta": {
            "category": "electoral",
            "bucket_key": "electoral__3",
            "match": "exact",
            "expected_mae_pp": 10.203,
            "branch": "withheld_withheld"
          },
          "crosstabs": {
            "party": {
              "Democrat": {
                "n": 319,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 98.9,
                  "Michael Whatley": 0.3,
                  "Undecided": 0.8
                }
              },
              "Independent": {
                "n": 158,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 87.7,
                  "Michael Whatley": 5.7,
                  "Undecided": 6.7
                }
              },
              "Other/Apolitical": {
                "n": 69,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 86.8,
                  "Michael Whatley": 6.4,
                  "Undecided": 6.8
                }
              },
              "Republican": {
                "n": 454,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 2.0,
                  "Michael Whatley": 97.5,
                  "Undecided": 0.5
                }
              }
            },
            "age": {
              "18-34": {
                "n": 286,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 49.6,
                  "Michael Whatley": 47.3,
                  "Undecided": 3.0
                }
              },
              "35-54": {
                "n": 314,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 51.8,
                  "Michael Whatley": 46.3,
                  "Undecided": 1.9
                }
              },
              "55-64": {
                "n": 177,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 54.5,
                  "Michael Whatley": 43.9,
                  "Undecided": 1.6
                }
              },
              "65+": {
                "n": 223,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 54.5,
                  "Michael Whatley": 44.2,
                  "Undecided": 1.3
                }
              }
            },
            "income": {
              "$125k or more": {
                "n": 348,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 50.5,
                  "Michael Whatley": 48.0,
                  "Undecided": 1.4
                }
              },
              "$35k-$74,999": {
                "n": 359,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 54.3,
                  "Michael Whatley": 43.4,
                  "Undecided": 2.4
                }
              },
              "$75k-$124,999": {
                "n": 120,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 52.2,
                  "Michael Whatley": 45.7,
                  "Undecided": 2.1
                }
              },
              "Under $35k": {
                "n": 173,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Roy Cooper": 51.7,
                  "Michael Whatley": 45.9,
                  "Undecided": 2.4
                }
              }
            }
          },
          "bootstrap": {
            "n_bootstrap": 1000,
            "dem_share_raw_ci95_pct": [
              49.4,
              55.3
            ],
            "dem_share_calibrated_ci95_pct": [
              49.2,
              54.1
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      "polling_context_at_publish": {
        "label": "Polling averages (Cooper vs Whatley), mid-Jul 2026",
        "detail": "Averages Jul 13: Cooper +8.4 (Race to the WH +7.4, 270toWin +10.5, RCP +7.3). PPP Jul 10-11: Cooper +4 (48/44).",
        "dem_margin_pp": "+8.4"
      }
    },
    {
      "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 — 2026 U.S. Senate",
      "market_id": "me",
      "state": "Maine",
      "tier": 2,
      "run_finished_at": "2026-07-29T22:43:15.556567+00:00",
      "panel": {
        "supabase_city": null,
        "agent_source": "census_generateAgent",
        "region_frame": "region_northeast",
        "panel_label": "Census-generated agents (ACS Northeast region frame, state-relabeled)",
        "panel_size": 1000,
        "sample_n": 1000,
        "sampling": "census-weighted generation from ACS regional frame, seed=42"
      },
      "methodology": {
        "model": "Lewis",
        "scoring": "withheld",
        "dateline": "withheld",
        "calibration": "withheld",
        "scaffold": "withheld"
      },
      "elapsed_seconds": 14.5,
      "response_rate": 1.0,
      "questions": [
        {
          "id": "me_senate_matchup_2026",
          "benchmark_qid": null,
          "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Troy Jackson or Republican Susan Collins?",
          "options": [
            "Troy Jackson",
            "Susan Collins",
            "Undecided"
          ],
          "question_type": "electoral",
          "mode": "policy",
          "dem_option_indices": [
            0
          ],
          "human_benchmark_gt": null,
          "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: Platner won the Jun 9 Dem primary but withdrew Jul 8; Maine Democratic Party nominated Troy Jackson at the Jul 25 convention. Collins is the five-term GOP incumbent. No public polling of this matchup exists yet. Resolves against certified ME result Nov 3, 2026."
        }
      ],
      "results": {
        "me_senate_matchup_2026": {
          "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Troy Jackson or Republican Susan Collins?",
          "options": [
            "Troy Jackson",
            "Susan Collins",
            "Undecided"
          ],
          "benchmark_qid": null,
          "human_benchmark_gt": null,
          "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: Platner won the Jun 9 Dem primary but withdrew Jul 8; Maine Democratic Party nominated Troy Jackson at the Jul 25 convention. Collins is the five-term GOP incumbent. No public polling of this matchup exists yet. Resolves against certified ME result Nov 3, 2026.",
          "n_answered": 1000,
          "weight_sums": [
            299.031018,
            682.546952,
            18.422036
          ],
          "raw_pct": {
            "Troy Jackson": 29.9,
            "Susan Collins": 68.3,
            "Undecided": 1.8
          },
          "calibrated_pct": {
            "Troy Jackson": 34.0,
            "Susan Collins": 65.9,
            "Undecided": 0.1
          },
          "dem_vote_share_raw_pct": 29.9,
          "dem_vote_share_calibrated_pct": 34.0,
          "calibration_meta": {
            "category": "electoral",
            "bucket_key": "electoral__3",
            "match": "exact",
            "expected_mae_pp": 10.203,
            "branch": "withheld_withheld"
          },
          "crosstabs": {
            "party": {
              "Democrat": {
                "n": 372,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 74.0,
                  "Susan Collins": 24.7,
                  "Undecided": 1.3
                }
              },
              "Independent": {
                "n": 168,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 7.6,
                  "Susan Collins": 88.0,
                  "Undecided": 4.4
                }
              },
              "Other/Apolitical": {
                "n": 118,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 7.6,
                  "Susan Collins": 88.4,
                  "Undecided": 4.0
                }
              },
              "Republican": {
                "n": 342,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 0.6,
                  "Susan Collins": 98.9,
                  "Undecided": 0.5
                }
              }
            },
            "age": {
              "18-34": {
                "n": 277,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 37.6,
                  "Susan Collins": 59.2,
                  "Undecided": 3.2
                }
              },
              "35-54": {
                "n": 302,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 30.9,
                  "Susan Collins": 67.5,
                  "Undecided": 1.6
                }
              },
              "55-64": {
                "n": 176,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 26.0,
                  "Susan Collins": 72.9,
                  "Undecided": 1.2
                }
              },
              "65+": {
                "n": 245,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 22.9,
                  "Susan Collins": 76.1,
                  "Undecided": 1.0
                }
              }
            },
            "income": {
              "$125k or more": {
                "n": 420,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 26.9,
                  "Susan Collins": 71.7,
                  "Undecided": 1.4
                }
              },
              "$35k-$74,999": {
                "n": 312,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 30.4,
                  "Susan Collins": 67.7,
                  "Undecided": 1.9
                }
              },
              "$75k-$124,999": {
                "n": 121,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 30.6,
                  "Susan Collins": 66.8,
                  "Undecided": 2.6
                }
              },
              "Under $35k": {
                "n": 147,
                "raw_pct": {
                  "Troy Jackson": 36.7,
                  "Susan Collins": 60.7,
                  "Undecided": 2.5
                }
              }
            }
          },
          "bootstrap": {
            "n_bootstrap": 1000,
            "dem_share_raw_ci95_pct": [
              27.6,
              32.4
            ],
            "dem_share_calibrated_ci95_pct": [
              32.1,
              35.9
            ]
          }
        }
      },
      "polling_context_at_publish": {
        "label": "Collins vs Jackson - no public polling yet",
        "detail": "Jackson became the Democratic nominee July 25 (convention replacement after Platner withdrew July 8). No public poll of this matchup existed at pre-registration.",
        "dem_margin_pp": "n/a"
      }
    }
  ]
}