{
  "issue": "05",
  "status": "Graded September 12, 2026. Guess #2 nowcast 52.1 vs Michigan preliminary ICS 47.8 (plus 4.3). Guess #1 55.4 was plus 7.6.",
  "prereg": "withheld",
  "prereg_sha": "1c0b054cbfa6506aea6eee9c96a72ea41df87b93",
  "model": "Lewis",
  "n": 1000,
  "frame": "48 coterminous states + D.C. AK/HI excluded.",
  "calibration": "withheld",
  "primary": {
    "ICS": 55.4,
    "ICC": 61.8,
    "ICE": 51.4
  },
  "august": {
    "dateline": "withheld",
    "ICS": 55.0,
    "ICC": 61.0,
    "ICE": 51.1,
    "x": [
      77,
      81,
      62,
      59,
      79
    ],
    "versus_human": {
      "ICS": 51.7,
      "ICC": 51.9,
      "ICE": 51.5
    },
    "signed_error": {
      "ICS": 3.3,
      "ICC": 9.1,
      "ICE": -0.4
    },
    "qualification": {
      "target": 51.7,
      "abs_err": 3.3,
      "failed": false
    }
  },
  "september": {
    "dateline": "withheld",
    "ICS": 55.4,
    "ICC": 61.8,
    "ICE": 51.4,
    "ICS_full": 55.43556647621303,
    "x": [
      78,
      82,
      63,
      58,
      80
    ]
  },
  "no_change_comparator": 51.7,
  "win_interval_ICS": [
    50.4,
    60.4
  ],
  "friday_official": {
    "source": "https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/",
    "release": "University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, Preliminary Results for September 2026",
    "released": "2026-09-11T10:00:00-04:00",
    "ICS": 47.8,
    "ICC": 50.9,
    "ICE": 45.8,
    "ICS_error": 7.6,
    "ICC_error": 10.9,
    "ICE_error": 5.6,
    "no_change_ICS_error": 3.9,
    "guess2_nowcast_ICS": 52.1,
    "guess2_ICS_error": 4.3,
    "verdict": "win",
    "verdict_on": "guess2_nowcast_ICS",
    "recorder": "Lewsearch, September 12, 2026"
  },
  "companions_post_output": {
    "nowcast_ICS": 52.1,
    "nowcast_ICS_full": 52.14406287930371,
    "argmax_september_ICS": 52.6,
    "not_the_primary": true
  },
  "cells": {
    "august_ok": 5000,
    "september_ok": 5000,
    "missing": 0
  },
  "hashes": {
    "registration_sha": "1c0b054cbfa6506aea6eee9c96a72ea41df87b93",
    "roster_sha256": "e16e31518c1546d4b4b4ca8618aed217aa0232b0f14deeb071c3dd00f793b524",
    "august_cells_sha256": "b500dbd826718d1c10ece28091c337286840120318ee1184a5f946ba5da7779b",
    "september_cells_sha256": "523c04b069e81f66b0d97e9fc3cc0e54dbca60c1ff2273a0b5c05c00ccb7b8e5",
    "runner_sha256": "f06ca50ec6866d98d5e77baa1cb8e97e7327b687a733f6b157aee2dad3a5ceac"
  }
}