The Lewsearch Report · Issue 11
Pending · Election Day, November 3

SPECIAL REPORT

The 2026 Senate Forecast

35 races. One national picture.

Issue 11 · Published October 31, 2026 · Forecast cutoff October 31, 2026, 12:00 p.m. ET · Grade: Pending

On November 3, 2026, voters in 35 states will elect U.S. senators: 33 in regular elections, plus special elections in Florida and Ohio. This report forecasts each race’s vote shares and leader, and will grade every forecast in public against the official results.

35 races · Forecast cutoff October 31, 2026, 12:00 p.m. ET · Results: Pending · Leaders: Democrats 17 · Republicans 17 · Independents 1 · Toss-ups 7

The forecast map

Select a state, or choose one from the list, to open its race below the map. Color shows the forecast leader; shade shows the predicted margin. The table further down lists every race.

A map of the 50 states. The 35 states with a Senate race on November 3, 2026, are buttons in alphabetical order; each opens its race panel below the map. The 15 states without a Senate election in 2026 are light gray and not selectable: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin. Washington, D.C., has no senators. The race table below lists every race as text.

Predicted margin (points)

Under 33–55–88+
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Margins under 3.0 points are marked toss-up
No Senate election in 2026
Letter after a state code: the leader's party

Senate control

The row shows all 100 seats: the 65 not up in 2026, muted, and the 35 races colored by each forecast leader. Democrats and the independents who caucus with them reach 51 seats on these forecasts, a majority.

  • Democrats not up in 2026: 32
  • Independents not up · caucus with Democrats: 2
  • Democrat leads: 17
  • Independent leads · caucus not stated: 1
  • Republican leads: 17
  • Republicans not up in 2026: 31

Seats not up: source, as of October 27, 2026. The two independents not up in 2026 caucus with the Democrats.

Close races

The 6 races with the smallest predicted margins.

All 35 races

This table is a complete text alternative to the map. Sort by any column, or search by state or candidate; select a state to open its race panel.

35 races shown

Senate races · forecast and result
Details
RegularRBarry MooreDEverett Wess59.1%40.9%R +18.2RepublicanPending—
RegularRDan SullivanInc.DMary Peltola50.7%49.3%R +1.4Republican (toss-up)Pending—
RegularRTom CottonInc.DHallie Shoffner59.4%40.6%R +18.8RepublicanPending—
RegularDJohn HickenlooperInc.RMark Baisley60.7%39.3%D +21.4DemocratPending—
RegularDChris CoonsInc.RMike Katz63.5%36.5%D +27.0DemocratPending—
SpecialRAshley MoodyInc.DAngie Nixon53.8%46.2%R +7.6RepublicanPending—
RegularDJon OssoffInc.RMike Collins55.2%44.8%D +10.4DemocratPending—
RegularRJim RischInc.ITodd Achilles58.2%41.8%R +16.4RepublicanPending—
RegularDJuliana StrattonRDon Tracy58.0%42.0%D +16.0DemocratPending—
RegularRAshley HinsonDJosh Turek50.4%49.6%R +0.8Republican (toss-up)Pending—
RegularRRoger MarshallInc.DAdam Hamilton50.1%49.9%R +0.2Republican (toss-up)Pending—
RegularRAndy BarrDCharles Booker60.2%39.8%R +20.4RepublicanPending—
RegularRJulia LetlowDJamie Davis57.8%42.2%R +15.6RepublicanPending—
RegularDTroy JacksonRSusan CollinsInc.51.3%48.7%D +2.6Democrat (toss-up)Pending—
RegularDEd MarkeyInc.RJohn Deaton67.0%33.0%D +34.0DemocratPending—
RegularDAbdul El-SayedRMike Rogers52.1%47.9%D +4.2DemocratPending—
RegularDPeggy FlanaganRMichele Tafoya53.8%46.2%D +7.6DemocratPending—
RegularRCindy Hyde-SmithInc.DScott Colom55.6%44.4%R +11.2RepublicanPending—
RegularRKurt AlmeISeth Bodnar55.9%44.1%R +11.8RepublicanPending—
RegularIDan OsbornRPete RickettsInc.50.1%49.9%I +0.2Independent (toss-up)Pending—
RegularDChris PappasRJohn E. Sununu54.2%45.8%D +8.4DemocratPending—
RegularDCory BookerInc.RJustin Murphy60.6%39.4%D +21.2DemocratPending—
RegularDBen Ray LujánInc.RLarry Marker59.0%41.0%D +18.0DemocratPending—
RegularDRoy CooperRMichael Whatley54.7%45.3%D +9.4DemocratPending—
SpecialDSherrod BrownRJon HustedInc.50.9%49.1%D +1.8Democrat (toss-up)Pending—
RegularRKevin HernDN'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas62.9%37.1%R +25.8RepublicanPending—
RegularDJeff MerkleyInc.RDavid Brock Smith63.4%36.6%D +26.8DemocratPending—
RegularDJack ReedInc.RRaymond McKay66.0%34.0%D +32.0DemocratPending—
RegularRDarline GrahamInc.DAnnie Andrews51.9%48.1%R +3.8RepublicanPending—
RegularRMike RoundsInc.IBrian Bengs55.6%44.4%R +11.2RepublicanPending—
RegularRBill HagertyInc.DMarquita Bradshaw62.5%37.5%R +25.0RepublicanPending—
RegularDJames TalaricoRKen Paxton50.5%49.5%D +1.0Democrat (toss-up)Pending—
RegularDMark WarnerInc.RBert Mizusawa59.7%40.3%D +19.4DemocratPending—
RegularRShelley Moore CapitoInc.DRachel Fetty Anderson69.3%30.7%R +38.6RepublicanPending—
RegularRHarriet HagemanDJames Byrd68.9%31.1%R +37.8RepublicanPending—

  1. Regular election

    Candidates
    RBarry Moore · 59.1%DEverett Wess · 40.9%
    Predicted margin
    R +18.2
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  2. Regular election

    Candidates
    RDan Sullivan · 50.7%DMary Peltola · 49.3%
    Predicted margin
    R +1.4
    Leader
    Republican (toss-up)
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Ranked-choice voting

  3. Regular election

    Candidates
    RTom Cotton · 59.4%DHallie Shoffner · 40.6%
    Predicted margin
    R +18.8
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  4. Regular election

    Candidates
    DJohn Hickenlooper · 60.7%RMark Baisley · 39.3%
    Predicted margin
    D +21.4
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  5. Regular election

    Candidates
    DChris Coons · 63.5%RMike Katz · 36.5%
    Predicted margin
    D +27.0
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  6. Special election

    Candidates
    RAshley Moody · 53.8%DAngie Nixon · 46.2%
    Predicted margin
    R +7.6
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  7. Regular election

    Candidates
    DJon Ossoff · 55.2%RMike Collins · 44.8%
    Predicted margin
    D +10.4
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Majority required; a runoff follows if no candidate passes 50%

  8. Regular election

    Candidates
    RJim Risch · 58.2%ITodd Achilles · 41.8%
    Predicted margin
    R +16.4
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  9. Regular election

    Candidates
    DJuliana Stratton · 58.0%RDon Tracy · 42.0%
    Predicted margin
    D +16.0
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  10. Regular election

    Candidates
    RAshley Hinson · 50.4%DJosh Turek · 49.6%
    Predicted margin
    R +0.8
    Leader
    Republican (toss-up)
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  11. Regular election

    Candidates
    RRoger Marshall · 50.1%DAdam Hamilton · 49.9%
    Predicted margin
    R +0.2
    Leader
    Republican (toss-up)
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  12. Regular election

    Candidates
    RAndy Barr · 60.2%DCharles Booker · 39.8%
    Predicted margin
    R +20.4
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  13. Regular election

    Candidates
    RJulia Letlow · 57.8%DJamie Davis · 42.2%
    Predicted margin
    R +15.6
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  14. Regular election

    Candidates
    DTroy Jackson · 51.3%RSusan Collins · 48.7%
    Predicted margin
    D +2.6
    Leader
    Democrat (toss-up)
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Ranked-choice voting

  15. Regular election

    Candidates
    DEd Markey · 67.0%RJohn Deaton · 33.0%
    Predicted margin
    D +34.0
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  16. Regular election

    Candidates
    DAbdul El-Sayed · 52.1%RMike Rogers · 47.9%
    Predicted margin
    D +4.2
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  17. Regular election

    Candidates
    DPeggy Flanagan · 53.8%RMichele Tafoya · 46.2%
    Predicted margin
    D +7.6
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  18. Regular election

    Candidates
    RCindy Hyde-Smith · 55.6%DScott Colom · 44.4%
    Predicted margin
    R +11.2
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  19. Regular election

    Candidates
    RKurt Alme · 55.9%ISeth Bodnar · 44.1%
    Predicted margin
    R +11.8
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  20. Regular election

    Candidates
    IDan Osborn · 50.1%RPete Ricketts · 49.9%
    Predicted margin
    I +0.2
    Leader
    Independent (toss-up)
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  21. Regular election

    Candidates
    DChris Pappas · 54.2%RJohn E. Sununu · 45.8%
    Predicted margin
    D +8.4
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  22. Regular election

    Candidates
    DCory Booker · 60.6%RJustin Murphy · 39.4%
    Predicted margin
    D +21.2
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  23. Regular election

    Candidates
    DBen Ray Luján · 59.0%RLarry Marker · 41.0%
    Predicted margin
    D +18.0
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  24. Regular election

    Candidates
    DRoy Cooper · 54.7%RMichael Whatley · 45.3%
    Predicted margin
    D +9.4
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  25. Special election

    Candidates
    DSherrod Brown · 50.9%RJon Husted · 49.1%
    Predicted margin
    D +1.8
    Leader
    Democrat (toss-up)
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  26. Regular election

    Candidates
    RKevin Hern · 62.9%DN'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas · 37.1%
    Predicted margin
    R +25.8
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  27. Regular election

    Candidates
    DJeff Merkley · 63.4%RDavid Brock Smith · 36.6%
    Predicted margin
    D +26.8
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  28. Regular election

    Candidates
    DJack Reed · 66.0%RRaymond McKay · 34.0%
    Predicted margin
    D +32.0
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  29. Regular election

    Candidates
    RDarline Graham · 51.9%DAnnie Andrews · 48.1%
    Predicted margin
    R +3.8
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  30. Regular election

    Candidates
    RMike Rounds · 55.6%IBrian Bengs · 44.4%
    Predicted margin
    R +11.2
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  31. Regular election

    Candidates
    RBill Hagerty · 62.5%DMarquita Bradshaw · 37.5%
    Predicted margin
    R +25.0
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  32. Regular election

    Candidates
    DJames Talarico · 50.5%RKen Paxton · 49.5%
    Predicted margin
    D +1.0
    Leader
    Democrat (toss-up)
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  33. Regular election

    Candidates
    DMark Warner · 59.7%RBert Mizusawa · 40.3%
    Predicted margin
    D +19.4
    Leader
    Democrat
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  34. Regular election

    Candidates
    RShelley Moore Capito · 69.3%DRachel Fetty Anderson · 30.7%
    Predicted margin
    R +38.6
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

  35. Regular election

    Candidates
    RHarriet Hageman · 68.9%DJames Byrd · 31.1%
    Predicted margin
    R +37.8
    Leader
    Republican
    Result
    Pending
    Error
    —
    More on this race

    Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins

How we will score it

These rules were frozen on October 31, 2026, 12:00 p.m. ET, before publication.

Winner calls
Correct calls out of 35: pending.
Error metric
Average miss. Each race's miss is the gap, in points, between our forecast and the certified result for the leading non-Republican candidate's share of the two-way vote against the Republican. Alaska uses the final ranked-choice round.
Pass rule
The forecast passes if its mean error across all 35 races is 4.0 points or less.
Toss-ups
Every race is called. A margin under 3.0 points is marked toss-up and still counts as a call.

The grade is Pending until the official results are certified.

Sources

The race list, seat classes, term ends and voting systems were verified against Senate.gov and state election offices, except where a race notes that its candidate list comes from county ballots; the 15 states without a 2026 Senate election are Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. Candidate names come only from election officials’ certified candidate lists and ballots. Map: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundaries (2017) via us-atlas, ISC license.

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