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The Lewsearch Report

Predictions first. Scores later.

Updated October 1, 2026Synthetic-panel forecasts, graded in publicFree to cite

Lewsearch publishes consumer and public-opinion forecasts from its synthetic panels before the official numbers come out. When the numbers land, each forecast gets a grade, and the misses stay on the page.

Latest Issue · No. 07

Awaiting grade · Deloitte publishes mid-October

The 2026 Holiday Budget, Called Before Deloitte Publishes It

Deloitte has most likely already surveyed shoppers about their 2026 holiday budgets. It publishes in mid-October; we have not seen the answer. Our forecast, from a method registered before the panel answered, is a hair under last year.

Our forecast
$1,589
Deloitte 2025
$1,595
We win at
$1,509–1,591

Published October 1, 2026 · Read the Issue

Latest Pulse

Same Big Mac, two prices

Reuters reported that McDonald's uses AI to guide menu prices. We showed 3,000 simulated U.S. adults the same $1.20 Big Mac gap in one of three versions: an AI reason, a cost reason, or no reason.

90%
unfair when no reason is given
83%
unfair when an AI recommended it from what locals will pay
54%
unfair when the store pays higher rent and wages

Published October 1, 2026 · Read the Pulse

The record

3 wins·1 miss·3 awaiting a grade

Only Issues count. Each one names its benchmark, its number and its winning rule before the official figure exists. Pulses are quick reads on the news and are never graded.

  1. 07Deloitte holiday survey: average planned spend, 2026October 1, 2026 · Win if $1,509 to $1,591Ours $1,589Official Due mid-OctoberAwaiting grade
  2. 06NY Fed household spending growth, AugustSeptember 15, 2026 · Inside the band; April's 4.8 was closerOurs 4.9Official 4.7Miss
  3. 05Michigan consumer sentiment, September preliminarySeptember 9, 2026 · Second guess; the first, 55.4, missedOurs 52.1Official 47.8Win
  4. 04225 public-opinion questions for 2026–27September 1, 2026Ours 225 frozenOfficial Resolves Jan 8, 2027Awaiting grade
  5. 03Five 2026 Senate racesJuly 30, 2026Ours 5 marginsOfficial Resolves Nov 3, 2026Awaiting grade
  6. 02Prince George's County data-center pauseJuly 6, 2026Ours 94.9% supportOfficial Passed July 7Win
  7. 01NRF back-to-school spend per K-12 householdJuly 7, 2026 · Two frozen runs, both within 1%. Two timing questions were instrument mismatchesOurs $857 / $870Official $864Win

Pulses

Quick reads on the news. Never graded.

  1. October 1, 2026Same Big Mac, two pricesAfter Reuters reported McDonald's uses AI to guide menu prices, 3,000 simulated U.S. adults judged a $1.20 Big Mac price gap. 90% called it unfair with no reason given, 83% with the AI reason and 54% with higher local costs.83% unfair with the AI reason, 90% with none
  2. September 10, 2026What would America do with $5,000?After President Trump proposed a conditional $5,000 Trump Dividend, 1,000 simulated U.S. adult citizens would put $1,429 of it toward housing on average, the largest single slice. A hypothetical; the payment may never happen.$1,429 to housing
  3. September 9, 2026If Apple Announces a Foldable iPhone: An Ungraded Ohio PulseAn Ohio read taken before the keynote. 22.8 percent average yes, asked without a price, so it measures interest and says nothing about sales.22.8% yes, before any price
  4. July 23, 2026Tesla Q2 2026: Revenue Up, Trust SplitReactive national read after Tesla's Q2 earnings and the brand-trust debate trending on LinkedIn. n=2,000 U.S. adults.71.7% see unproven AI bet
  5. July 17, 2026Data Centers and the Columbus Electric Bill1,000 simulated central Ohio residents on data centers, electric bills, and who should pay for the grid. Published before the July 22 Columbus City Council hearing.90.8% back a pause
  6. July 9, 2026Waymo Expands While Rivals LagWould Americans actually ride a driverless taxi? A coin-flip split masks a sharp partisan gap. n=2,000 national panel.48% not very likely vs 45% somewhat
  7. July 8, 2026Blue Origin at $130B: Ohio Says Too High84% of Ohio panel respondents say $130B is way too high for what Blue Origin has delivered. n=2,000 simulated Ohio panel.84.4% way too high

How the Report works

Synthetic, and labeled that way

Every number comes from Lewsearch's panels of simulated respondents, built from U.S. Census demographics and checked against published surveys. No humans are interviewed, and every page says so.

Frozen before the answer

Each Issue states its benchmark, its forecast and its winning rule before the official figure exists. When the figure lands we add the grade and change nothing else.

Error on the record

On the calibrated 50-state benchmark, the average miss is 7.07 points on the best 80% of 1,521 scored questions, and 10.02 points across all of them. The 50-state check · Methodology

Get the forecast before the answer.

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Citing the Report. Free to republish with credit to The Lewsearch Report and a link to the piece. Please describe the numbers as synthetic-panel estimates. Press: jeffrey@lewsearch.com